Due to the rapid advancement in communication technology, the commercialization of 6G is expected to take place by 2030, marking a significant reduction in the innovation cycle.
The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) initiated the standardization process for 3G in 1980, which was followed by the deployment of the first wave of 3G networks in Japan in 1998 after 18 years of development. Similarly, the standardization of 4G began in 2000 and deployment started in the United States after 12 years.
In comparison, the ITU started working on the 5G standard in 2013, and countries like South Korea, the United States, and China began offering 5G services between 2019 and 2020. The time from standardization to deployment and commercial availability for 5G was significantly reduced to 7-8 years, compared to the timelines of 3G and 4G, according to DIGITIMES Research analyst, Ashley Huang.
With the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) set to start researching 6G in 2024 and aiming to release the 6G standard in 2027-2028 (Release 22), the first wave of 6G network deployment and commercial availability is projected to commence around 2029-2030, according to Huang.
By 2030, the global number of mobile users is expected to reach 9.49 billion, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.4%. The market will reach saturation, leading to a slowdown in growth. Among these users, 65.9% will be utilizing 5G, 27.7% will rely on 4G, and the remaining 6.3% will represent the declining presence of 2G and 3G technologies.
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